As Israel struggles for Middle East dominance, Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future is still up in the air
And there are. In securing US involvement in last month’s strikes on Iran, Israel has managed to further weaken and isolate Hamas, an Iranian proxy, beyond the wrecked cities and towns of Gaza.
“This has to be the window to use the leverage that’s been created to drive towards the end of the war and getting all the hostages home,” former US Pentagon official and ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro told the Israeli journalist Neria Kraus on Tuesday.
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran.Credit: Getty Images
“Iran is weaker than it’s ever been, exposed in ways it has never been before – that should be leveraged, and I think can be leveraged, to get Hamas to be more flexible on the terms of the hostage deals.”
That same day, Trump issued another social media declaration, saying that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War”.
Hamas confirmed it was considering the proposal. Tellingly, though, in its statement, the terrorist group emphasised that it wanted a US commitment that the ceasefire would lead to a permanent end to the war. This position has been a sticking point in previous rounds of negotiations, with Israel determined that the war should not end before it achieves what it views as a complete victory.
This would include a return of all remaining hostages and the removal of Hamas from Gaza. “There will not be a Hamas,” Netanyahu said at a public meeting on Wednesday. “There will not be a Hamastan. We’re not going back to that. It’s over. We will free all our hostages.”
Benjamin Netanyahu, pictured in court in December, has been able to successfully argue for delays to court proceedings against him.Credit: nna\Jorgebranco
Observers within Israel note that there is more in play than the competing demands of Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu is also concerned with his political future and the personal legal threats he faces.
Rynhold believes Netanyahu sees the maintenance of power not only as a goal in its own right, but as a shield against prosecution, and that this will have an impact on peace negotiations. To maintain power, Netanyahu must balance the demands of the parliamentary coalition he has stitched together, which includes not only his right-wing Likud party, but members of far-right and Orthodox parties.
“I don’t think he can distinguish between what’s good for him and what’s good for the state of Israel. He just thinks whatever’s good for him is good for the state of Israel.”
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Rynhold believes that even if Netanyahu could secure a comprehensive enough victory in Gaza to allow him to consider a peace deal, supported by the majority of voters, he might still perceive a political threat within his coalition. This could be an incentive for him to draw out negotiations.
There is an irony here. As Rynhold notes, Netanyahu built a strategy of tacitly supporting Hamas before the war to divide Palestinian power blocs.
As the politics play out, the carnage in Gaza has only intensified.
In January, Israel banned the United Nations’ lead relief agency for Palestinians, UNRWA, from operating, and between March and May, it blocked all food aid to Gaza in an effort to force Hamas to negotiate, driving more than 2 million people towards starvation.
Last month, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a private organisation backed by the US and Israel, took over food relief operations. GHF is now led by the American evangelical leader and businessman Johnnie Moore jnr, who once praised Trump’s proposal to take over the Gaza Strip, saying: “The USA will take full responsibility for [the] future of Gaza, giving everyone hope and a future.”
Israeli tanks take up position near the GHF aid hub in Khan Younis, southern Gaza.Credit: AP
GHF has limited distribution to four sites, rather than the hundreds the UN had used. Those sites soon became killing zones, with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) firing machine guns and mortars at starving civilians gathering at the sites before they opened. According to a report by Haaretz last Friday, which quotes multiple unnamed IDF soldiers, some senior officers gave orders to shoot.
Netanyahu has denied the report. “These are malicious falsehoods designed to defame the IDF, the most moral military in the world,” he said.
“My children, my children … my beloved,” wailed Intisar Abu Assi, sobbing over the bodies of her son and daughters and their young children, says the report.
Netanyahu is expected to travel to Washington, DC, on Monday as part of Trump’s intensifying efforts to secure a ceasefire, though his government appears determined to maintain its assaults in Gaza as a potential peace deal nears.
“We’ll do to Gaza City and the central camps what we did to Rafah. Everything will turn to dust,” a senior Israeli official told Axios. “It’s not our preferred option, but if there’s no movement towards a hostage deal, we won’t have any other choice.”
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