Interest rates live updates: Bank of England poised to cut interest rates in boost to mortgage holders

Warm spring weather has helped retailer Next raise its full-year guidance once again after giving a boost to summer clothing sales.

The fashion-to-homewares group reported an 11.4 per cent jump in full-price sales for the 13 weeks to April 26, notching up £55 million more sales than it had expected for the quarter.

It said full-year results were set to be better than predicted thanks to the first quarter outperformance, raising its guidance for pre-tax profits by £14 million to £1.08 billion, which would mark a 6.8 per cent jump on the previous year.

Full-year sales are also now expected to lift by 6 per cent to £5.4 billion, up from £5.3 billion previously pencilled in.

The group added a note of caution, with expectations that some customers would have brought forward summer purchases that would normally have been made in its second quarter.

As many as 17 per cent of businesses feared being hit by US president Donald Trump’s tariffs, new figures have revealed.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a report today stating that 17 per cent of businesses with more than 10 employees said in late April that they expected to be impacted by the tariffs in the next month.

Top concerns included plummeting demand and being forced to hike prices for customers.

It comes as the the US and UK are poised to announce a major trade deal today, with the new data highlighting the importance of today’s announcement for British companies.

Norway’s central bank has kept interest rates on hold at a 17-year high of 4.50 per cent on Thursday, as unanimously predicted by analysts, reflecting a recent resurgence of inflation that has prevented policy-makers from cutting borrowing costs.

“If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly,” Norges Bank Deputy Governor Paal Longva said in a statement.

“The committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025,” he added.

The Norwegian crown strengthened slightly to 11.71 against the euro by 8.10 GMT, from 11.72 just before the announcement.

Norges Bank in a March policy reversal maintained its interest rate at 4.50 per cent, the highest level since 2008, as an unexpected rise in consumer prices led the central bank to postpone long-planned monetary easing.

A think-tank forecasting weaker than expected growth for the UK economy has blamed chancellor Rachel Reeves’ policies rather than the impact of US President Donald Trump’s increased trade tariffs.

The government is on track to miss its key fiscal rules, increasing the likelihood of tax hikes later this year, whil economic growth is also on track to be weaker than previously expected this year, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.

Benjamin Caswell, a senior economist at the Niesr, said the downgrade primarily reflected domestic factors over Mr Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with Ms Reeves introducing a number of controversial measures in her Spring Statement in March.

Mr Caswell told Reuters: “Yes, tariffs have engendered a lot of uncertainty, but I don’t think that should be basically taking the government off the hook.”

The government is on track to miss its key fiscal rules, increasing the likelihood of tax hikes later this year, an economic think tank has warned.

Economic growth is also on track to be weaker than previously expected this year, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr).

Fresh forecasts from the organisation indicated that a slowdown in domestic demand and global economic uncertainty will impact potential growth throughout the year.

It predicted that the UK economy will grow by 1.2 per cent in 2025 “amid low business confidence, high uncertainty and rising cost pressures”.

In its previous forecasts in February, Niesr had pointed to 1.5 per cent growth for the year.

The think tank indicated that the reduced level of growth will result in lower than previously predicted tax receipts.

As a result, it said the government is now expected to miss its fiscal rules requiring UK national debt as a share of the economy to fall and to be on course for a budget surplus.

In the government’s spring statement, chancellor Rachel Reeves said state finances were on track to give a headroom worth around £9.9 billion by 2029/30.

Niesr’s forecasts suggest this could now be set for a shortfall of £62.9 billion over this time frame, suggesting the Treasury could need to look at more spending cuts or tax increases to achieve a surplus.

Sir Keir Starmer will provide an update on trade talks with the US later on Thursday, Downing Street has said amid reports Donald Trump is set to announce a deal with the UK.

The US president teased the announcement of a “major trade deal” with a “big, highly respected country” in a post on his Truth Social platform overnight, with a press conference expected around 3pm UK time.

American media, including the New York Times, has reported that the deal is with the UK, citing people familiar with the plans.

A Number 10 spokeswoman said talks with the US had been “continuing at pace and the Prime Minister will update later today”.

The Government has been pursuing a deal with the US to reduce the impact of sweeping tariffs imposed by Mr Trump last month, which placed a 10 per cent levy on all UK exports and a 25 per cent charge on steel, aluminium and cars.

The parent company of British Gas has said the energy supplier’s profit will take a hit after warmer than usual spring weather.

Centrica said on Thursday that the residential energy arm of British Gas “has been impacted by warmer than normal weather in Q2 (the second quarter)”.

However, it is still expected to be within its £150 million to £250 million sustainable profit margin, it added.

The company was updating investors ahead of its annual general meeting on Thursday morning.

Centrica added that it remains in talks with ministers about securing financial support to expand and revamp its Rough gas storage site.

Today could be a major day for the UK economy, the BBC’s economics editor has suggested.

In a post on X, Faisal Islam said: “Very possible that we get BoE rate cut today, tariff mitigation deal with the US which leaves space for substantive eradication of post Brexit red tape with EU – all on heels of most intensive full fat trade deal with world’s fast growing most populous country.”

The average UK house price increased by nearly £900 month on month in April, despite some homebuyers facing a stamp duty cliff edge, according to an index.

Halifax recorded a 0.3 per cent month-on-month price rise in April, following a 0.5 per cent monthly fall in March.

The annual house price growth rate ticked up to 3.2 per cent in April, from 2.9 per cent in March, Halifax said.

The average property price in April was £297,781, up from £296,899 in March.

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages, Halifax, said: “UK house prices rose by 0.3 per cent in March, an increase of just under £900.

“We know the stamp duty changes prompted a surge in transactions in the early part of this year, as buyers rushed to beat the tax-rise deadline.

“However, this didn’t lead to a significant increase in property prices, with the last six months characterised by a stability in prices rarely seen since the pandemic.”

The US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged Wednesday as its policymakers wait to see how Donald Trump’s tariffs affect the US economy before making any moves.

This is unlike the European Central Bank, which cut interest rates last month.

And also unlike what is expected to happen in the UK today, with the Bank of England expected to also cut rates.