The crypto market has been swingy lately. Some days are green, others are red. Yesterday was one of those “meh” days. Three trades in, broke even. One stop-loss hit, another trade cut just slightly down, and I caught the local bottom—but closed too early before bed. Oh well, it’s a new day. And summer is here. Let’s take a closer look at the “Bitcoin summer” scenario.
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Why Is Bitcoin So Choppy During Summer?
Summer has always been a weird season for Bitcoin. One day it flies. The next, it stumbles. Here’s why it often acts strange during this time:
- Lower liquidity: Many traders are on vacation. Less trading volume means sharper moves.
- ETF inflows slow down: Big institutions often pull back in summer, delaying inflows.
- Company treasuries go quiet: Most firms don’t make large moves during Q3.
- Profit taking: With over 96% of Bitcoin wallets in profit, many cash out.
- Market manipulation: Thin liquidity leaves room for whales to shake things up.
- Trump unpredictability: Tweets, policies, and unexpected moves affect markets.
- Geopolitical tensions: Wars, elections, and economic policies stir uncertainty.
- Bank involvement rises: Deutsche Bank and UK firms are adding BTC to holdings.
Deutsche Bank is rolling out a crypto custody solution with Bitpanda and Taurus, signaling long-term confidence. Meanwhile, The Smarter Web Company in the UK recently stacked 230 BTC. They now hold 773 BTC—worth over $80 million. That kind of treasury commitment gives the market a boost, even in a choppy season.
The Current Bitcoin Range
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck between $99,000 and $107,800. Last week, it bounced off the bottom and has been grinding upward since. It’s not mooning, but it’s not crashing either.
This range is a playground for scalpers. Both longs and shorts are being respected. Support holds. Resistance pushes back. It’s the kind of setup where active traders can find joy, but only if they’re disciplined.
And altcoins even have bigger swings, but are less predictable. You need to trade on another level to be profitable scalping these.
Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Break Out?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $107,351. It has recovered nicely from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $103,270. A rising trendline from the June 23 low remains intact.
The 50-EMA sits at $106,898. That level is being tested. If bulls push above $106,786, we could see a quick move to $107,832. Maybe even $108,979.
MACD is flattening, which signals a possible bullish crossover soon. However, if support at $105,431 fails, a deeper pullback to $104,338 or $103,271 is possible.
Bitcoin Trade Zones:
- Support: $105,431, $104,338, $103,271
- Resistance: $106,786, $107,832, $108,979
- Bias: Bullish above $104,300
The charts are lining up. Institutional demand is strong. Retail traders are back. It’s looking good—at least for now.
Bitcoin Summer Prediction: 200K in Sight?
Some analysts are calling for a Bitcoin price of $200,000 before 2025 ends. That might sound crazy, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Between June 22 and this week, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit jumped from 87% to 98%. That’s a big move in a short time. High profitability like this usually brings volatility. People take profit. Prices dip. Then, often, they recover.
In early 2024, a similar pattern caused a drop from $109,000 to $74,000. But once the selling was done, BTC climbed back. These swings are normal. What matters is the overall direction—and it still leans bullish.
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has risen to 2.8, well above the high-band threshold. This shows strong confidence. But it also warns of possible demand exhaustion if momentum fades.
Related: Check our Ethereum summer prediction.
Explosive Moves Ahead?
Stockmoney Lizards, a respected market analyst, says Bitcoin is ready to break out of a long-term channel. They believe a short-term push to $140,000 is likely. Their year-end target? $200,000.
Their chart shows Bitcoin consistently making higher highs and higher lows. If it breaks above the upper trendline, the move could be violent. In a good way.
Mags, another known voice in the crypto space, has a $155,000 short-term target. His prediction is based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level.
Meanwhile, Sina from 21st Capital predicts a range of $130,000 to $200,000 for Q4 2025. Bitwise believes that Trump’s economic policies and a weakening dollar could fuel a rally. Bernstein Research also sees institutional inflows via ETFs and treasury holdings as a major driver.
Could Bitcoin Reach $500,000?
Chamath Palihapitiya thinks so. He’s a billionaire investor who has been bullish on Bitcoin for years. His new estimate? $497,000.
This prediction is based on halving cycles. Bitcoin tends to surge after halvings, and the latest one happened in April 2024. Past cycles have shown returns of 20x to 120x. Even a modest repeat would push BTC toward half a million.
Chamath argues that this time is different. More institutions are involved. There’s regulatory clarity. Sovereign wealth funds are watching. This isn’t just retail hype anymore.
Unlike previous cycles where miners had to sell to stay afloat, this time they’re holding. That signals long-term belief. Exchange reserves are also falling. More coins are moving into cold storage. That means less supply—and higher prices ahead.
On-Chain Metrics Stay Healthy
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is slightly elevated but not alarming. This means we’re not in a euphoric bubble. There’s still room for growth.
Miners are not sending large amounts to exchanges. That’s another good sign. When they do, it often means a sell-off is coming. But right now, that pressure is minimal.
The overall picture is one of healthy consolidation. Bitcoin is stabilizing. Big players are stacking. Small traders are waking up again. All we need now is a catalyst.
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Final Words
Bitcoin summer is full of potential—and caution. Prices are choppy. Volume is thin. But under the surface, everything is aligning. Institutional demand, cleaner charts, and stronger fundamentals suggest a bullish trend into late 2024.
Yes, we might dip. Yes, some traders will take profits. But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Bitcoin is evolving. And the next move could be massive.
Stay cool, trade smart, and enjoy the summer.
If you enjoyed this blog, go check out our recent guide on the new hype of tokenized stocks.
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